Turning Point Brands – A Compounder With 80% Upside

Turning Point Brands (TPB) is a textbook low risk, high return investment with immediate catalysts. Based on conservative assumptions I estimate that Turning Point Brand´s equity provides at least 80% upside to today´s valuation. The company is in the business of selling other tobacco products, which among others includes moist snuff, chewing tobacco, cigars, cigarette paper and liquid vaporisers. A 2016 IPO has provided relieve to TPB´s sky-high pre IPO debt load. Further refinancing and deleveraging of the balance sheet, which is supercharged by utilisation of loss carry-forwards, will reveal true earnings power of the business in 2018. Fetching a conservative multiple on 2018e earnings of 15x, implying an earnings yield of 7%, I arrive at a fair value of USD 23 per share. Continue reading

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