Watchlist

Stocks I watch in no particular order including back of the envelop price targets.

Penn National Gaming
Operates Casinos
Moat:
None
FV:
Assuming the company reaches its >USD 200 mn. FCF target the equity trades at an 18% FCFy.

Grenke AG
Leases IT Infrastructure to SMEs
Moat:
Lowest cost, proprietary credit scoring model, access to cheap financing via Grenke Bank deposits and ABS market.
FV:
20x 2017 net income of € 115 mn. or 156 € per share

WDFC
Sells Lubricants under the WD40 brand
Moat:
Niche Market, stellar WD40 brand not replicateable for competitors
FV:
At 15x EPSe of 3.60 WDFC is worth USD 54 per share

Google
Sells online ads
Moat:
more costumers of search means more data means better results means more costumers
FV:
At 20x FWD EPS of 41 USD Google is worth USD 820 per share

Suncor Energy
Is an integrated Canadian Oil Company
Moat:
Lowest cash costs (15$ -27$ per bbl), slowly depleting and stable oil sands reserve base, M&A at cycle low to assume control over Syncrude at bargain prices.
FV:
at 10x FY2018e FCF of CAD 7.6 bn. Suncor Equity is worth CAD 76 bn. or CAD 45.5 per share. Other majors trade at 5-6% FCFy.

American Express
facilitates payments through American Express cards and unlike VISA and MasterCard holds credit card loans on its balance sheet.
Moat:
Brand Recognition
FV:
at 15x FY2018 EPS of 6.28 shares are worth USD 94.2 per share

Wal-Mart
Largest US. Retailer
Moat:
Economies of Scale, Purchasing Power, Lowest Cost
FV:
At 15x FY2017e EPS of 4.32 Wal-Mart is worth USD 64.8 per share 

Autozone
Sells auto spare parts.
Moat:
Narrow Moat despite large Branch Network, Everything in Stock, Service, Purchasing Power
FV:
at 10x FY2018 EPS of 47 shares are worth USD 470

Flughafen Wien
Owns and runs Vienna Airport
Moat:
Infrastructure asset that cannot be replicated by competition, gate to Eastern Europe.
FV:
€ 180 mn FCFe at 4% cap rate translates into a valuation of around 50€ per share.

Group Eurotunnel
Holds concession for Eurotunnel connecting France and the UK via rail.
Moat:
Infrastructure asset that cannot be replicated by competition, 25% of UK trade flows through tunnel.
FV:
At 6% 2017e FCFy Eurotunnel´s equity is worth € 4,6 bn or 8.64 per share.

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