Watchlist

Stocks I watch in no particular order including back of the envelop price targets.

Ferrari NV
Seller of luxury sport cars

Moat:
Arguably one of the most exclusive brands
FV:
Conservative FV of  around 80€ per share

Western Union
Money transfer agent

Moat:
Brand recognition (translates into superior pricing-power), features by far the most send and receive countries compared to competition.
FV:
Buy @USD 15 per share for IRR of >20%

Hostelworld
Largest Online hostel-booking platform
Moat:
Strong Hostelworld.com brand, superior number of low budget accomodations
FV:
EUR 25 mn of FCF in 2018. A 17x multiple (12% CoE – 6% growth) translates into a PT of EUR 425 mn.

Grenke AG
Leases IT Infrastructure to SMEs
Moat:
Lowest cost, proprietary credit scoring model, access to cheap financing via Grenke Bank deposits and ABS market.
FV:
20x 2017 net income of € 115 mn. or 156 € per share

WDFC
Sells Lubricants under the WD40 brand
Moat:
Niche Market, stellar WD40 brand not replicateable for competitors
FV:
At 15x EPSe of 3.60 WDFC is worth USD 54 per share

Google
Sells online ads
Moat:
more costumers of search means more data means better results means more costumers
FV:
At 20x FWD EPS of 41 USD Google is worth USD 820 per share

American Express
facilitates payments through American Express cards and unlike VISA and MasterCard holds credit card loans on its balance sheet.
Moat:
Brand Recognition
FV:
at 15x FY2018 EPS of 6.28 shares are worth USD 94.2 per share

Wal-Mart
Largest US. Retailer
Moat:
Economies of Scale, Purchasing Power, Lowest Cost
FV:
At 15x FY2017e EPS of 4.32 Wal-Mart is worth USD 64.8 per share 

Autozone
Sells auto spare parts.
Moat:
Narrow Moat despite large Branch Network, Everything in Stock, Service, Purchasing Power
FV:
at very conservative 10x FY2018 EPS of 47 shares are worth USD 470

Flughafen Wien
Owns and runs Vienna Airport
Moat:
Infrastructure asset that cannot be replicated by competition, gate to Eastern Europe.
FV:
€ 180 mn FCFe at 4% cap rate translates into a valuation of around 50€ per share.

Group Eurotunnel
Holds concession for Eurotunnel connecting France and the UK via rail.
Moat:
Infrastructure asset that cannot be replicated by competition, 25% of UK trade flows through tunnel.
FV:
At 6% 2017e FCFy Eurotunnel´s equity is worth € 4,6 bn or 8.64 per share.

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